Focus of the study
The article examines the evolution of regional income disparities in the European Union over 2000–2024 at the NUTS 3 level. Rather than offering only a static account of convergence or divergence, it focuses on regional mobility: how often regions move between levels of relative development, which regions remain in the same category, and how the likelihood of upward or downward movement changes with the development level of neighbouring regions.
Each region’s relative position is measured using GDP per capita as a percentage of the EU-27 average, allowing its trajectory within the European regional distribution to be followed over time.
Methodological approach
The analysis makes systematic use of Spatial Markov chains and combines:
- unconditional transition probabilities between relative-development states,
- spatially conditioned transition probabilities based on the development level of each region’s neighbourhood,
- mean first-passage times between states,
- LISA Markov analysis of the evolution and persistence of local spatial regimes.
Robustness checks based on alternative state partitions, spatial weights matrices, and policy-relevant subperiods assess the stability of the main findings.
Main findings
The results reveal strong persistence in regional inequality and limited mobility over time. More specifically:
- the lowest and highest relative-development states are the most stable,
- intermediate states are more mobile but also more exposed to downward movement,
- transition probabilities vary systematically with the development level of neighbouring regions,
- upward mobility is particularly limited for low-income regions embedded in similarly disadvantaged neighbourhood environments,
- Low–Low and High–High regimes are highly persistent, indicating that regional inequality is deeply embedded in Europe’s spatial structure.
Implications for cohesion policy
The findings strengthen the case for place-sensitive and spatially coordinated cohesion policies. A region’s development trajectory is associated not only with its own characteristics but also with the wider regional environment in which it is embedded. Addressing persistent development traps therefore requires interventions that extend beyond administrative boundaries and account for spatial interdependencies.
The analysis is diagnostic rather than causal: it identifies stable patterns of mobility and spatial persistence without attributing regional transitions to a single mechanism.
Suggested citation
Doukissas, L., & Pantazis, P. (2026). Regional Disparities and Mobility in the European Space (2000–2024): A Spatial Markov Analysis. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 19, Article 210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-026-09977-y